Thursday, September 27, 2012

     I am sure, if you are like me, you are scratching your head at the recent polling data being presented on the evening news casts. The polls show President Obama running away with this election. If you do any investigation you will start to see the methods used by these polling companies are heavily weighted (D+17) toward Democrats. I wondered what would happen if someone just polled based on the current breakdown of Republicans, Democrats and Independents?

      Then I came up on Check out the real numbers: QStarNews Quick Poll Romney/Ryan 55% Obama/Biden 44% The QStarNews Quick Poll is the first trial run preceding the upcoming QStarNews poll on the presidential race and current events. This election season has seen so many polls heavily skewed and poorly weighted, that show skewed and inaccurate results.
     The purpose of this poll is to present the most accurate results possible based on the latest of what is known about the electorate and voter behavior and other statistical information available. The QStarNews poll works with the premise that the partisan makeup of the electorate 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.1 percent independent voters.
     Additionally, our model is based on the electoral including approximately 41.6 percent self-described conservatives, 32.6 percent self-described moderates and 25.8 percent self-described liberals. Republicans are 68 percent conservative, 27 percent moderate and 5 percent liberal. Among Democrats, 14 percent are conservative, 36 percent are moderate and 50 percent are liberal. Independents include 39 percent conservatives, 36 percent moderates and 25 percent liberals.
     Our polls about doubly-weighted, to doubly insure the results are most accurate and not skewed, by both party identification and self-identified ideology. For instance, no matter how many Republicans answer our survey, they are weighted at 37.6 percent. If conservatives are over-represented among Republicans in the raw sample, they are still weighted at 68 percent of Republicans regardless. This system of double weighting should insure our survey produces very accurate results, not skewed either way for the Democrats or for the Republicans. Results: The QStarNews Quick Poll We asked eight questions in this survey.
     The web-based survey included 2075 responses surveyed between September 10-15. The poll has a margin of error of three percent. If the election were held today, would you vote for the ticket of Democratic candidates, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Bicden, or the ticket of Republican candidates, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Congressman Paul Ryan?

Romney/Ryan 55% Obama/Biden 44% 

Check out the full results at

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by David W. Andersen